Análise da sazonalidade da tuberculose nas capitais brasileiras e Distrito Federal, Brasil, no período de 2001 a 2019 / Analysis of the seasonality of tuberculosis in Brazilian capitals and the Federal District from 2001 to 2019 / Análisis de la estacionalidad de la tuberculosis en las capitales brasileñas y el Distrito Federal, Brasil, de 2001 a 2019

Existe uma limitação de trabalhos na literatura acerca da sazonalidade da tuberculose (TB) no hemisfério sul, o que torna necessário o preenchimento dessa lacuna de conhecimento para a região. O estudo objetiva analisar se existe sazonalidade da incidência de TB nas capitais brasileiras do Brasil e no Distrito Federal, por meio de um estudo ecológico de série temporal (2001-2019) dos casos da doença. Utilizou-se a base de 516.524 casos de TB do Ministério da Saúde. As capitais e o Distrito Federal foram distribuídos em cinco grupos, com base em indicadores sociais, carga da doença e classificação climática de Koppen. Avaliou-se a variação sazonal das notificações de TB e a amplitude sazonal por grupo. Identificou-se a presença da sazonalidade da TB no Brasil ao nível de significância de 1% em todos os grupos de capitais (teste de estabilidade assumida e Krusall-Wallis, p < 0,01) e, no teste combinado de sazonalidade, os grupos A, D e E de capitais mostraram presença de sazonalidade; e, provavelmente presentes, os grupos B e C. Os achados mostraram que é um desafio levantar os fatores sazonais subjacentes à sazonalidade da TB nas regiões tropicais do Hemisfério Sul: o clima pode não ser o fator subjacente mais relevante encontrado na sazonalidade da TB, mas sim a oferta e/ou procura por serviços de saúde.

The literature has few studies on the seasonality of tuberculosis (TB) in the southern hemisphere, entailing the fill of this knowledge gap. This study aims to analyze whether TB incidence in Brazilian capitals and the Federal District is seasonal. This is an ecological study of a time series (2001-2019) of TB cases, conducted with 26 capitals and the Federal District. The Ministry of Health database, with 516,524 TB cases, was used. Capitals and the Federal District were divided into five groups based on social indicators, disease burden, and the Koppen climate classification. The seasonal variation of TB notifications and group amplitude were evaluated. We found TB seasonality in Brazil with a 1% significance in all capital groups (Stability assumption and Krusall-Wallis tests, p < 0.01). In the combined seasonality test, capital groups A, D, and E showed seasonality, whereas groups B and C, its probability. Our findings showed that health service supply and/or demand - rather than climate - may be the most relevant underlying factor in TB seasonality. It is challenging to raise the other seasonal factors underlying TB seasonality in tropical regions in the Southern Hemisphere.

Son limitados los estudios que tratan de la estacionalidad de la tuberculosis (TB) en el hemisferio Sur, por lo que se hace necesario llenar esta laguna. Este estudio tiene como objetivo analizar si existe una estacionalidad en la incidencia de TB en las capitales brasileñas y en el Distrito Federal, Brasil. Estudio ecológico de series de tiempo (2001-2019) de casos de TB, realizado en 26 capitales brasileñas y el Distrito Federal. Se utilizó una base de datos con 516.524 casos de TB del Ministerio de Salud. Las capitales y el Distrito Federal se dividieron en cinco grupos, con base en indicadores sociales, carga de enfermedad y clasificación climática de Koppen. Se evaluaron la variación estacional de las notificaciones de TB y la amplitud estacional por grupo. La presencia de estacionalidad de la TB en Brasil fue identificada con un nivel de significación del 1% en todos los grupos de capitales (prueba de estabilidad supuesta y Kruskal-Wallis, p < 0,01), en la prueba de estacionalidad combinada, los grupos A, D y E de las capitales tuvieron la presencia de estacionalidad; y también es probable que haya estado presente en los grupos B y C. Los hallazgos demostraron que el clima puede no ser el factor subyacente más relevante encontrado en la estacionalidad de la TB, pero sí la oferta y/o demanda de servicios de salud, lo que muestra que es un desafío plantear los demás factores estacionales subyacentes a la estacionalidad de la TB en las regiones tropicales del Hemisferio Sur.

Clinical Impact of the Line Probe Assay and Xpert® MTB/RIF Assay in the Presumptive Diagnosis of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Brazil: A Pragmatic Clinical Trial

ABSTRACT Background: Rapid molecular methods such as the line probe assay (LPA) and Xpert® MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) have been recommended by the World Health Organization for drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) diagnosis. We conducted an interventional trial in DR-TB reference centers in Brazil to evaluate the impact of the use of LPA and Xpert. Methods: Patients with DR-TB were eligible if their drug susceptibility testing results were available to the treating physician at the time of consultation. The standard reference MGITTM 960 was compared with Xpert (arm 1) and LPA (arm 2). Effectiveness was considered as the start of the appropriate TB regimen that matched drug susceptibility testing (DST) and the proportions of culture conversion and favorable treatment outcomes after 6 months. Results: A higher rate of empirical treatment was observed with MGIT alone than with the Xpert assay (97.0% vs. 45.0%) and LPA (98.2% vs. 67.5%). Patients started appropriate TB treatment more quickly than those in the MGIT group (median 15.0 vs. 40.5 days; p<0.01) in arm 1. Compared to the MGIT group, culture conversion after 6 months was higher for Xpert in arm 1 (90.9% vs. 79.3%, p=0.39) and LPA in arm 2 (80.0% vs. 83.0%, p=0.81). Conclusions: In the Xpert arm, there was a significant reduction in days to the start of appropriate anti-TB treatment and a trend towards greater culture conversion in the sixth month.

Who was affected by the shortage of penicillin for syphilis in Rio de Janeiro, 2013-2017? / A quem afetou o desabastecimento de penicilina para sífilis no Rio de Janeiro, 2013-2017?

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the shortage of benzathine penicillin G (BPG), characterizing its temporal evolution and spatial distribution in the city of Rio de Janeiro from 2013 to 2017. METHODS This ecological study used gestational and congenital syphilis notifications, BPG distribution records, and sociodemographic data from the population of Rio de Janeiro. To quantify the shortage, a BPG supply indicator was estimated per quarter for each neighborhood between 2013 and 2017. Thematic maps were created to identify areas and periods with greater BPG shortage, described according to sociodemographic factors, health services network, and epidemiological features in the incidence of syphilis. RESULTS BPG shortage in Rio de Janeiro from 2013 to 2017 was not homogeneous in space nor in time. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of BPG scarcity shows that the shortage affected the inhabitants of the municipality in different ways. Shortage was lower in 2013 and 2016 and more severe in 2014, 2015, and 2017, particularly in neighborhoods within the programmatic areas PA3 and PA5, poorer and with higher prevalence rates of gestational and congenital syphilis. CONCLUSIONS Analyzing BPG shortage and its temporal evolution and spatial distribution in Rio de Janeiro allowed us to realize that the inhabitants are affected in different ways. Understanding this process contributes to the planning of actions to face shortage crises, minimizing possible impacts on the management of syphilis and reducing inequality in access to treatment.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Analisar o desabastecimento da penicilina benzatina (PB), caracterizando sua evolução temporal e distribuição espacial no município do Rio de Janeiro de 2013 a 2017. MÉTODOS Trata-se de estudo ecológico misto realizado com notificações de sífilis gestacional e congênita, registros de distribuição de PB e de dados sociodemográficos da população dos bairros do município do Rio de Janeiro. Para mensurar o desabastecimento foi calculado por trimestre um indicador de abastecimento de PB para cada bairro, entre 2013 e 2017. Mapas temáticos foram produzidos para identificar áreas e períodos com maior desabastecimento de PB, o qual foi descrito segundo condições sociodemográficas, rede de serviços de saúde e aspectos epidemiológicos da incidência de sífilis por bairro. RESULTADOS O desabastecimento de PB no município do Rio de Janeiro, no período de 2013 a 2017, não foi homogêneo no espaço ou no tempo. A evolução temporal e a distribuição espacial da escassez de PB revelam que o desabastecimento afetou de formas distintas os habitantes do município, sendo menor em 2013 e 2016 e mais intenso em 2014, 2015 e 2017, principalmente nos bairros das áreas programáticas AP3 e AP5, mais pobres e com maiores taxas de sífilis gestacional e congênita. CONCLUSÕES Analisar o desabastecimento de PB e sua evolução temporal e distribuição espacial no município do Rio de Janeiro permitiu reconhecer que os habitantes do município são afetados de diferentes modos. Compreender esse processo ajuda a planejar ações para enfrentar crises de desabastecimento, minimizando possíveis impactos no controle da sífilis, além de reduzir a desigualdade no acesso ao tratamento.

Spatial diffusion of Zika fever epidemics in the Municipality of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil, in 2015-2016: does Zika fever have the same spread pattern as Dengue and Chikungunya fever epidemics?

Abstract INTRODUCTION The recent emergence and rapid spread of Zika and Chikungunya fevers in Brazil, occurring simultaneously to a Dengue fever epidemic, together represent major challenges to public health authorities. This study aimed to identify and compare the 2015-2016 spatial diffusion pattern of Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue epidemics in Salvador-Bahia. METHODS We used two study designs comprising a cross-sectional-to-point pattern and an ecological analysis of lattice data. Residential addresses involving notified cases were geocoded. We used four spatial diffusion analysis techniques: (i) visual inspection of the sequential kernel and choropleth map, (ii) spatial correlogram analysis, (iii) spatial local autocorrelation (LISA) changes analysis and, (iv) nearest neighbor index (NNI) modeling. RESULTS Kernel and choropleth maps indicated that arboviruses spread to neighboring areas near the first reported cases and occupied these new areas, suggesting a diffusion expansion pattern. A greater case density occurred in central and western areas. In 2015 and 2016, the NNI best-fit model had an S-curve compatible with an expansion pattern for Zika (R2 = 0.94; 0.95), Chikungunya (R2 = 0.99; 0.98) and Dengue (R2 = 0.93; 0.99) epidemics, respectively. Spatial correlograms indicated a decline in spatial lag autocorrelations for the three diseases (expansion pattern). Significant LISA changes suggested different diffusion patterns, although a small number of changes were detected. CONCLUSIONS These findings indicate diffusion expansion, a unique spatial diffusion pattern of Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue epidemics in Salvador-Bahia, namely. Knowing how and where arboviruses spread in Salvador-Bahia can help improve subsequent specific epidemic control interventions.

Women economic empowerment via cash transfer and microcredit programs is enough to decrease intimate partner violence? Evidence from a systematic review / O empoderamento econômico das mulheres através de programas de transferência de renda e de microcrédito é suficiente para diminuir a violência entre parceiros íntimos? Evidências de uma revisão sistemática / ¿El empoderamiento económico de las mujeres a través de programas de transferencia de renta y de microcréditos basta para disminuir la violencia doméstica? Evidencias de una revisión sistemática

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a worldwide public health problem. Many proposals aiming to eliminate its occurrence include the empowerment of women through their socio-economic development. In this context, some studies suggested that microcredit programs (MP) and cash transfer programs (CTP) are initiatives that can also reduce the risk of IPV. Others pointed to an opposite effect. The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of women's economic empowerment in MP and CTP on the risk of physical, psychological and sexual violence through a systematic review. Papers/documents selection was conducted by two researchers according to the following criteria: published in English, Portuguese or Spanish; primary data; assessing the effect of MP or CTP on IPV; in heterosexual couples; on women beneficiaries of the intervention; using a comparator group eligible for an MP or CTP; and focusing on risk IPV as the outcomes. Our results showed that the impact of MP are mixed when it comes to physical and physical/sexual violence. Even so, the review suggests that the effect of MP on sexual violence is trivial or nonexistent. Regarding the impact of CTPs, the present study showed that the effects on physical, physical/sexual, psychological, and sexual violence were also heterogeneous. Women more empowered and with some autonomy could be at risk. Despite that, participation in the empowerment program should be encouraged for poor women and families. However, parallel interventions to lead with IPV should be addressed to the main actions to reduce the risk of increasing IPV prevalence in certain scenarios.

A violência entre parceiros íntimos (VPI) é um problema de saúde pública de alcance global. Muitas propostas para eliminar a VPI incluem o empoderamento das mulheres através do desenvolvimento socioeconômico individual. Nesse contexto, alguns estudos sugerem que programas de microcrédito (PMC) e de transferência de renda (PTR) também podem reduzir o risco de VPI, enquanto outros apontam para um efeito oposto. Através de uma revisão sistemática, este estudo teve como objetivo investigar a influência do empoderamento econômico das mulheres através de PMCs e PTRs sobre o risco de violência física, psicológica e sexual. A seleção de artigos e documentos foi realizada por dois pesquisadores, com base nos seguintes critérios: publicação em inglês, português ou espanhol; dados primários; avaliação do efeito de PMC ou PTR sobre VPI; casais heterossexuais; mulheres beneficiárias da intervenção; uso de um grupo de comparação elegível para um PMC ou PTR e foco sobre o risco de VPI como o desfecho. Nossos resultados mostraram que o impacto dos PMCs é misto no que diz respeito à violência física e física/sexual. Contanto, a revisão sugere que o efeito dos PMCs sobre a violência sexual é trivial ou inexistente. Quanto ao impacto dos PTRs, o estudo mostrou que os efeitos sobre a violência física, física/sexual, psicológica e sexual também foram heterogêneos. As mulheres mais empoderadas e com alguma autonomia poderiam estar em risco maior. Entretanto, a participação no programa de empoderamento deve ser incentivada para as mulheres e famílias pobres. Intervenções paralelas para líder com a VPI devem focar nas principais medidas para reduzir o risco de aumento de prevalência de VPI em determinados cenários.

La violencia doméstica (VPI por sus siglas en portugués) es un problema de salud pública en todo el mundo. Las propuestas para eliminarla incluyen el empoderamiento de las mujeres a través de su desarrollo socioeconómico. Algunos estudios sugieren que los programas de microcrédito (PMCs) y de transferencia de renta (PTRs) son iniciativas capaces de reducir el riesgo de VPI. Otros estudios indican un efecto contrario. Basándonos en una revisión sistemática, el estudio procuró investigar la influencia del empoderamiento económico de las mujeres, a través de PMCs y PTRs, sobre el riesgo de violencia física, psicológica y sexual. Los artículos y documentos fueron seleccionados por dos investigadores, de acuerdo con los siguientes criterios: estudios publicados en inglés, portugués o español; datos primarios; evaluación del efecto del PMC o PTR sobre la VPI; parejas heterosexuales; mujeres beneficiarias de la intervención; un grupo de comparación elegible para un PMC o PTR y centrados en el riesgo de VPI como desenlace. De acuerdo con nuestros resultados, el impacto de los PMCs es mixto en lo que se refiere a la violencia física y física/sexual. No obstante, la revisión sugiere que el efecto de los PMCs sobre la violencia sexual es trivial o inexistente. En relación con el impacto de los PTRs, el estudio mostró que los efectos sobre la violencia física, física/sexual, psicológica y sexual también son heterogéneos. Las mujeres más empoderadas y con alguna autonomía podrían estar en riesgo. Sin embargo, la participación en el programa de empoderamiento debe incentivarse en el caso de las mujeres y familias pobres. Las intervenciones paralelas para combatir VPI deben dar prioridad a medidas para reducir el riesgo de aumento de la prevalencia de esta violencia en determinados contextos.

Social determinants of pulmonary tuberculosis in Argentina / Determinantes sociais da tuberculose pulmonar na Argentina

ABSTRACT: Background: In Argentina, approximately 9,000 new cases of tuberculosis (TB) are recorded every year, representing an incidence rate of 22 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. There are no reported studies in Argentina examining the factors that influence the unequal distribution of the disease. The aim of the study was to identify the relationship between the distribution of social and economic factors and TB in Argentina between 2008 and 2012. Method: An ecologic study involving 525 departmental jurisdictions was conducted. Simple linear regression analysis was performed, followed by multiple linear regression for each group of determinants. A final model of determinants of TB's incidence was constructed from a model of multiple linear regression. Results: The following determinants explain 43% of the variability of TB's incidence rate among different jurisdictions: overcrowding, proportion of households with a sewage network, proportion of examined patients with respiratory symptoms and proportion of patients who discontinued treatment. Discussion: This study makes an important contribution to a better understanding of the factors influencing the TB occurrence in Argentina, which is the result of a multidimensional and complex process. Thesefactors make part of this disease's social determination. Conclusion: TB incidence is associated with different determinants, from multiple levels. Inequalities in its distribution in Argentina are driven by the unequal distribution of key social determinants.

RESUMO: Introdução: Aproximadamente 9 mil novos casos de tuberculose (TB) por ano são registrados na Argentina, representando uma taxa de incidência de 22 casos por 100 mil habitantes. Não há estudos publicados que avaliaram os fatores que influenciam a distribuição desigual da doença na Argentina. O objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar a relação entre a distribuição dos fatores sociais e econômicos e da tuberculose na Argentina entre 2008 e 2012. Método: Foi realizado um estudo ecológico envolvendo 525 departamentos. Na análise procedeu-se uma regressão linear simples, seguida de regressão linear múltipla para cada grupo de determinantes. Um modelo final com os determinantes da incidência de TB foi construído por meio de regressão linear múltipla. Resultados: Os seguintes determinantes explicam 43% da variabilidade da taxa de incidência de TB entre diferentes jurisdições: aglomeração intradomiciliar, proporção de domicílios com rede de esgoto, proporção de pacientes examinados com sintomas respiratórios e proporção de pacientes com tratamento descontinuado. Discussão: Este estudo contribui de maneira importante para uma melhor compreensão dos fatores que influenciam a ocorrência da TB na Argentina, resultado de um processo multidimensional e complexo. Esses fatores fazem parte da determinação social dessa doença. Conclusão: A incidência de TB está associada a diferentes determinantes, de múltiplos níveis. A heterogeneidade na distribuição da tuberculose na Argentina deve-se, entre outros fatores, pela distribuição desigual de determinantes sociais e de acesso às ações de saúde.

Predictors of mortality in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients from Brazilian reference centers, 2005 to 2012

ABSTRACT Objectives To determine the main predictors of death in multidrug-resistant (MDRTB) patients from Brazil. Design Retrospective cohort study, a survival analysis of patients treated between 2005 and 2012. Results Of 3802 individuals included in study, 64.7% were men, mean age was 39 (1-93) years, and 70.3% had bilateral pulmonary disease. Prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was 8.3%. There were 479 (12.6%) deaths. Median survival time was 1452 days (4 years). Factors associated with increased risk of death were age greater than or equal to 60 years (hazard rate [HR] = 1.6, confidence interval [CI] = 1.15-2.2), HIV co-infection (HR = 1.46; CI = 1.05-1.96), XDR resistance pattern (HR = 1.74, CI = 1.05-2.9), beginning of treatment after failure (HR = 1.72, CI = 1.27-2.32), drug abuse (HR = 1.64, CI = 1.22-2.2), resistance to ethambutol (HR = 1.30, CI = 1.06-1.6) or streptomycin (HR = 1.24, CI = 1.01-1.51). Mainly protective factors were presence of only pulmonary disease (HR = 0.57, CI = 0.35-0.92), moxifloxacin use (HR = 0.44, CI = 0.25-0.80), and levofloxacin use (HR = 0.75; CI = 0.60-0.94). Conclusion A more comprehensive approach is needed to manage MDRTB, addressing early diagnostic, improving adhesion, and comorbidities, mainly HIV infection and drug abuse. The latest generation quinolones have an important effect in improving survival in MDRTB.

Distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil): a spatial analysis / Distribuição da tuberculose pulmonar no Rio de Janeiro (Brasil): uma análise espacial

Abstract The aim of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of the tuberculosis endemic in Rio de Janeiro State from 2002 to 2011. A retrospective study was conducted in the state of Rio de Janeiro from 2002 to 2011. Spatial analysis techniques were used to describe the distribution of tuberculosis incidence in the state. Multilevel Poisson regression model was used to access the relationship of tuberculosis and the following factors: "sex", "age-group" and "diagnostic year" (individual-level factors). Demographic density and municipality were also included in the model as contextual-level factors. A reduction in endemic tuberculosis was observed over the years. The highest incidence rates were concentrated on the south coast of the state, covering Rio de Janeiro City (capital) and neighboring cities. We detected a significant clustering of high TB incidence rates on the south coast of the state and a cluster of low incidence in the northeastern region of state. The risk of tuberculosis was higher in early 2000s, in males and in 40-59 age group. Metropolitan regions are important risk areas for the spread of tuberculosis. These findings could be used to plan control measures according to the characteristics of each region.

Resumo O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a distribuição espacial da tuberculose (TB) endêmica no Rio de Janeiro 2002-2011. Estudo retrospectivo realizado no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, 2002-2011. Técnicas de análise espacial foram utilizadas para descrever a distribuição de incidência de tuberculose no estado. Modelo de regressão multinível de Poisson foi utilizado para acessar a relação de tuberculose e os fatores: "sexo", "faixa etária" e "ano de diagnóstico" (fatores de nível individual). A "Densidade demográfica" e o "município de residência" também foram incluídos no modelo como fatores de nível contextual. Houve redução da tuberculose endêmica ao longo dos anos. As maiores taxas de incidência se concentraram no litoral sul do estado, abrangendo capital e cidades vizinhas. Observamos a formação de cluster significativo com altas taxas de incidência de TB no litoral sul do estado e cluster de baixa incidência na região nordeste do estado. O risco de tuberculose foi maior no início de 2000, no sexo masculino e na faixa etária 40-59. As megacidades são áreas de risco importantes para a disseminação da tuberculose. Estes achados poderiam ser usados para planejar medidas de controle de acordo com as características de cada região.

Prevalence of tuberculosis respiratory symptoms and associated factors in the indigenous populations of Paraguay (2012)

BACKGROUND The prevalence of respiratory symptoms and confirmed tuberculosis (TB) among indigenous groups in Paraguay is unknown. METHODS This study assessed the prevalence of respiratory symptoms, confirmed pulmonary TB, and associated socio-economic factors among indigenous Paraguayan populations. Indigenous persons residing in selected communities were included in the study. A total of 24,352 participants were interviewed at home between October and December 2012. Respiratory symptomatic individuals were defined as those with respiratory symptoms of TB. A hierarchical Poisson regression analysis was performed with four levels: individual characteristics, living conditions and environmental characteristics, source of food, and type of nutrition. FINDINGS In this study, 1,383 participants had respiratory symptoms (5.7%), but only 10 had culture-confirmed TB (41/100,000 inhabitants). The small number of cases did not allow evaluation of the risk factors for TB. Age older than 37 years was associated with a two-fold increased risk of symptoms. Female sex; family history of TB; type of housing; home heating; a lack of hunting, fishing, or purchasing food; and a lack of vegetable consumption were also associated with the presence of symptoms. A lack of cereal consumption had a protective effect. Members of the Ayoreo or Manjui ethnic groups had a three-fold increased risk of symptoms. MAIN CONCLUSION Individual characteristics, dietary habits, and belonging to specific ethnic groups were associated with respiratory symptoms.

Spatial patterns of preventable perinatal mortality in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To identify the spatial distribution patterns and areas of higher risk of preventable perinatal mortality in the city of Salvador, State of Bahia, Brazil. METHODS We carried out a spatial aggregated study in 2007, considering the weighting areas (census tracts contiguous sets) of Salvador, of which the center and north present low life conditions. Data were obtained from national vital statistics systems and the 2010 Census. Addresses of live births and stillbirths were geocoded by weighting area. The spatial distribution of the perinatal mortality rate was analyzed from thematic maps. Spatial dependence was evaluated by the Global and Local Geary's and Moran's Indexes. RESULTS Crude and smoothed perinatal mortality rates were high in areas situated to the north, west, and in center of Salvador. The smoothed rates in weighting areas ranged from 4.9/1,000 to 22.3/1,000 births. Of all perinatal deaths, 92.1% could have been prevented. We identified spatial dependence for preventable perinatal mortality for care in pregnancy, with neighboring areas with high risk in the north of the city. CONCLUSIONS The preventability potential of perinatal mortality was high in Salvador, in 2007. The spatial distribution pattern with higher rates in disadvantaged areas of the city suggests the existence of social inequalities in health. The characteristics of the process of urban development of Salvador, which has inadequate prenatal care, possibly influenced the magnitude and spatial distribution pattern of this mortality.

Prevalence and factors associated with latent tuberculosis infection in an indigenous population in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract: INTRODUCTION Recent studies have shown a high incidence and prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in indigenous populations around the World. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and annual risk of infection (ARI) as well as to identify factors associated with LTBI in an indigenous population from the Brazilian Amazon. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional study in 2011. We performed tuberculin skin tests (TSTs), smears and cultures of sputum samples, and chest radiographs for individuals who reported cough for two or more weeks. Associations between LTBI (TST ≥5mm) and socio-demographic, clinical, and epidemiological characteristics were investigated using Poisson regression with robust variance. Prevalence ratio (PR) was used as the measure of association. RESULTS We examined 263 individuals. The prevalence of LTBI was 40.3%, and the ARI was 2.4%. Age ≥15 years [PR=5.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.5-8.6], contact with tuberculosis (TB) patients (PR=3.8; 95% CI: 1.2-11.9), previous TB history (PR=1.4; 95% CI: 1.2-1.7), and presence of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) scar (PR=1.9, 95% CI: 1.2-2.9) were associated with LTBI. CONCLUSIONS Although some adults may have been infected years prior, the high prevalence of infection and its strong association with age ≥15 years, history of TB, and recent contact with TB patients suggest that the TB transmission risk is high in the study area.

Does my patient have chronic Chagas disease? Development and temporal validation of a diagnostic risk score

Abstract: INTRODUCTION With the globalization of Chagas disease, unexperienced health care providers may have difficulties in identifying which patients should be examined for this condition. This study aimed to develop and validate a diagnostic clinical prediction model for chronic Chagas disease. METHODS This diagnostic cohort study included consecutive volunteers suspected to have chronic Chagas disease. The clinical information was blindly compared to serological tests results, and a logistic regression model was fit and validated. RESULTS The development cohort included 602 patients, and the validation cohort included 138 patients. The Chagas disease prevalence was 19.9%. Sex, age, referral from blood bank, history of living in a rural area, recognizing the kissing bug, systemic hypertension, number of siblings with Chagas disease, number of relatives with a history of stroke, ECG with low voltage, anterosuperior divisional block, pathologic Q wave, right bundle branch block, and any kind of extrasystole were included in the final model. Calibration and discrimination in the development and validation cohorts (ROC AUC 0.904 and 0.912, respectively) were good. Sensitivity and specificity analyses showed that specificity reaches at least 95% above the predicted 43% risk, while sensitivity is at least 95% below the predicted 7% risk. Net benefit decision curves favor the model across all thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: A nomogram and an online calculator (available at http://shiny.ipec.fiocruz.br:3838/pedrobrasil/chronic_chagas_disease_prediction/) were developed to aid in individual risk estimation.

Custo-efetividade do uso da tomografia de emissão de pósitrons na detecção de recorrência do câncer diferenciado de tireoide / Cost-effectiveness of the use of positron emission tomography in the detection of recurrence of differentiated thyroid cancer

Avaliou-se a custo-efetividade da adição da tomografia de emissão de pósitrons (18FDG-PET-TC) aos métodos convencionais na detecção de recorrência de cânceres diferenciados de tireoide. O modelo analítico de decisão representou coorte hipotética de pacientes adultos, de alto risco pela estratificação inicial, submetidos a tireoidectomia total e ablação com I131. A estratégia convencional de detecção foi comparada à adição da 18FDG-PET-TC aplicada aos indivíduos com resultados de cintigrafia com I131 negativos. O horizonte temporal foi de dez anos. Utilizou-se a perspectiva do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) e, como medida de efetividade, os casos adicionais diagnosticados pela inclusão da PET-TC. Foram considerados apenas os custos médicos diretos. O custo do PET-TC foi estimado por microcustos; os demais custos foram obtidos das tabelas de pagamento de procedimentos do SUS. Custos e benefícios foram descontados em 5%. Realizaram-se análises de sensibilidade determinística univariada e probabilística. Detectaram-se 1.875 casos de recorrência com a estratégia convencional. Uso da 18FDG-PET-TC permitiu a detecção adicional de 13 casos, com custo de R$477.633,05/caso detectado. Os parâmetros de maior impacto na análise foram: medidas de acurácia dos métodos convencionais, custo do PET-TC e taxa de desconto. Os custos da adição da PET-TC mostram-se significativos e sua introdução não é custo-efetiva.

The positron emission tomography (18FDG-PET/CT) was recently introduced in Brazilian health care for many oncology indications but accompanied by higher costs. In our study we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of the addition of PET/CT to the conventional diagnostic work-up to detect recurrent differentiated thyroid cancers. The analytical decision model represented a hypothetical cohort of adults, thyroid cancer patients with high risk by initial stratification, submitted to total thyroidectomy and ablation with I131. The addition of PET/CT was applied to subjects with negative results on I131scintigraphy. The model was designed from the perspective of the Brazilian public health care system, with a time horizon of 10 years. Effectiveness was measured by the additional recurrent cases detected. Only direct medical costs were considered. Costs and benefits were discounted by 5%. Univariate deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyzes were performed to explore the uncertainties. The PET/CT diagnosed 13 additional cases compared to conventional strategy (1,888 vs 1,875) by a cost of R$477,633.05 per case detected. The parameters of greatest impact in the sensitivity analysis were the accuracy of conventional tests, cost of PET/CT and the discount rate. The costs of adding PET/CT seems significant and its introduction is not cost-effective on the Brazilian perspective.

Social determinants of nonadherence to tuberculosis treatment in Buenos Aires, Argentina / Determinantes sociales de la no adherencia al tratamiento de la tuberculosis en Buenos Aires, Argentina / Determinantes sociais da não-adesão ao tratamento de tuberculose em Buenos Aires, Argentina

This study aimed to identify the individual and environmental determinants of nonadherence to tuberculosis (TB) treatment in selected districts in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area, in Argentina. We conducted a cross-sectional study using a hierarchical model. Using primary and secondary data, logistic regression was performed to analyze two types of determinants. The likelihood of nonadherence to treatment was greatest among male patients. The following factors led to a greater likelihood of nonadherence to treatment: patients living in a home without running water; head of household without medical insurance; need to use more than one means of transport to reach the health center; place of residence in an area with a high proportion of households connected to the natural gas network; place of residence in an area where a large proportion of families fall below the minimum threshold of subsistence capacity; place of residence in an area where a high proportion of households do not have flushing toilets and basic sanitation. Our results show that social and economic factors – related to both individual and environmental characteristics – influence adherence to TB treatment.

El objetivo fue identificar los determinantes individuales y de área de la no adherencia al tratamiento de la tuberculosis (TB) en municipios de Buenos Aires, Argentina. Se realizó un estudio transversal con un modelo jerarquizado. El análisis se llevó a cabo mediante regresión logística múltiple en dos niveles, en base a datos primarios y secundarios. Los varones tuvieron mayor riesgo de no adherencia al tratamiento. La falta de provisión de agua en el hogar aumentó el riesgo de no adherencia. En aquellos hogares cuyo jefe de familia no tenía cobertura de salud también el riesgo de no adherencia fue mayor, al igual que en los pacientes que utilizaron más de un medio de transporte para llegar al centro de salud. En las áreas con mayor proporción de hogares con red de gas natural, mayor proporción de hogares con necesidades básicas instisfechas por la capacidad de subsistencia y mayor proporción de hogares que no tenían inodoros fue mayor el riesgo de no adherencia. Se concluye que los factores sociales y económicos tienen influencia sobre la adherencia al tratamiento, tanto a nivel individual, como de área.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar os determinantes individuais e de área da não-adesão ao tratamento da tuberculose (TB) em municípios de Buenos Aires, Argentina. Foi realizado um estudo transversal com um modelo hierarquizado. A análise dos determinantes foi realizada em dois níveis por meio de análise de regressão logística em dois níveis, com base em dados primários e secundários. Além disso, a falta de abastecimento de água em casa aumentou o risco de não-adesão. Nesses domicílios, cujo chefe de família não tinha a cobertura de saúde, também o risco de não-adesão foi maior, como em pacientes que usaram mais de um meio de transporte para chegar ao centro de saúde. Em áreas com uma maior proporção de domicílios com uma rede de gás natural e com necessidades básicas insatisfeitas para os meios de vida e uma maior proporção de domicílios sem sanitários foi maior o risco de não-adesão. Conclui-se que os fatores sociais e econômicos influenciam a adesão ao tratamento da TB, tanto individualmente como em termos de área.

Spatial dynamics of AIDS incidence in the elderly in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1997-2011 / Dinâmica espacial da incidência da AIDS em idosos no Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 1997-2011 / Dinámicas espaciales de la incidencia del SIDA en adultos de edad avanzada en Río de Janeiro, Brasil, 1997-2011

The dynamics of the spread of the AIDS epidemic ranges according to the characteristics of each geographical region in different population groups. The aim of this study was to evaluate spatial and temporal trends of the AIDS epidemic among the elderly in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A retrospective study using spatial analysis techniques was conducted among AIDS cases (≥ 60 years) diagnosed from 1997-2011. The Poisson regression model was used to assess the relationship between year of diagnosis and incidence of AIDS, adjusted by sex. The AIDS epidemic began in the south coast of the state and gradually reached neighboring cities. The highest rates were found in regions around Rio de Janeiro and Niterói cities. The highest smoothed rates of the period were observed in Niterói in 2002-2006: 11.87/100,000 (men) and 8,5/100,000 (women). AIDS incidence rates among the elderly have stabilized in recent decades. To prevent HIV from spreading further among the general population, greater attention should be given to the older population.

A dinâmica de espalhamento da epidemia de AIDS varia segundo as características de cada região geográfica nos diferentes grupos populacionais. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar tendências temporais e espaciais da epidemia de AIDS em idosos no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Estudo retrospectivo com técnicas de análise espacial, utilizando-se casos de AIDS (≥ 60 anos) diagnosticados de 1997-2011. O modelo de regressão de Poisson foi utilizado para acessar a relação entre ano diagnóstico e incidência de AIDS ajustada por sexo. A epidemia de AIDS começou no litoral sul do estado e, gradualmente, chegou às cidades vizinhas. As maiores taxas da doença foram encontradas em regiões em torno do Rio de Janeiro e Niterói. Em 2002-2006, na cidade de Niterói, foram observadas as maiores taxas suavizadas no período: 11,87/100 mil (homens) e 5,08/100 mil (mulheres). Os índices de AIDS em idosos têm estabilizado nas últimas décadas. Maior atenção deve ser dada ao grupo idoso para evitar a progressão da doença na população.

El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar las tendencias espaciales y temporales de la epidemia del SIDA en los adultos de edad avanzada en el Estado de Río de Janeiro, Brasil. Se trata de un estudio retrospectivo de técnicas de análisis espacial, utilizando casos de SIDA (≥ 60 años) diagnosticados 1997-2011. El modelo de regresión de Poisson se utiliza para acceder a la relación entre año de diagnóstico y la incidencia del SIDA ajustada por sexo. La epidemia del SIDA comenzó en la costa sur del estado y, poco a poco, llegó a las ciudades aledañas. Se encontró que las tasas más altas de la enfermedad en las regiones que rodean Río de Janeiro y Niterói. En 2002-2006, en la ciudad de Niterói, hubo tasas más altas de la enfermedad suavizadas durante el período: 11,87/100.000 (hombres) y 8,5/100.000 (mujeres). Las tasas de SIDA en las personas mayores se han estabilizado en las últimas décadas. Se debe proporcionar una mayor atención al grupo de adultos de edad avanzada, con el fin de prevenir la progresión de la enfermedad en la población.

Fatores associados ao acesso geográfico aos serviços de saúde por pessoas com tuberculose em três capitais do Nordeste brasileiro / Factors associated with geographic access to health services by TB patients in three State capitals in Northeast Brazil / Los factores asociados al acceso geográfico a los servicios de salud para personas con tuberculosis en tres capitales del nordeste brasileño

O objetivo do presente estudo foi identificar fatores associados ao acesso geográfico aos serviços de saúde por portadores de tuberculose em três capitais do Nordeste do Brasil. A amostra foi composta por casos novos de tuberculose, notificados em 2007. Foram utilizados dados provenientes do Sistema de Informação sobre Agravos de Notificação, e do Cadastro Nacional de Estabelecimento de Saúde. Os endereços dos domicílios e das unidades de saúde foram georreferenciados e, utilizando a distância entre o domicílio e a unidade de atendimento de cada caso, foi considerado acesso dificultado quando esta distância foi maior do que 800 metros. Foram estimadas as razões de prevalência bruta e ajustada por meio de regressão de Poisson. Verificou-se que após ajuste com as variáveis estudadas, apenas a variável unidade básica, em Salvador, Bahia (RP = 0,75; IC95%: 0,720-0,794) e em Recife, Pernambuco (RP = 0,402; IC95%: 0,318-0,508), manteve associação com o acesso dificultado. O estudo concluiu que a descentralização do atendimento em unidade básica pode contribuir com a melhoria do acesso aos serviços de saúde.

The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with geographic access to health services by tuberculosis patients in three State capitals in Northeast Brazil. The sample consisted of new tuberculosis cases reported in 2007. The study used data from the Information System on Notifiable Diseases and the National Registry of Healthcare Organizations. Addresses of households and health services were geocoded, and difficult access was defined as a distance greater than 800 meters from the household to the health service. Crude prevalence ratios were estimated, as well as adjusted prevalence ratios using Poisson regression. After adjusting the study variables, the only variable that remained associated with difficult access was primary healthcare units in Salvador, Bahia State (PR = 0.75; 95%CI: 0.720-0.794) and in Recife, Pernambuco State (PR = 0.402; 95%CI: 0.318-0.508). The study concluded that decentralization of primary care can help improve access to health services.

El objetivo de este estudio fue identificar los factores asociados con el acceso geográfico a los servicios de salud para pacientes con tuberculosis en tres capitales del Nordeste. La muestra constó de nuevos casos de tuberculosis en 2007. El estudio usó datos del Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Notificación Obligatoria y del Registro Nacional de Establecimientos de Salud. Las direcciones de los hogares y establecimientos de salud fueron geocodificados y, utilizando la distancia entre el hogar y la unidad de cuidados en cada caso, se consideró de difícil acceso cuando esta distancia era mayor de 800 metros. Se calcularon los cocientes de brutos y ajustados mediante la regresión de Poisson por razones de prevalencia. Se encontró que después de ajustar las variables estudiadas, sólo la unidad variable básica en Salvador (RP = 0,75; IC95%: 0.720-0.794) y Recife (OR = 0,402; IC95%: 0,318-0,508) se mantuvieron asociadas con difícil acceso. La conclusión es que la descentralización de la atención en las unidades básicas de atención puede contribuir a la mejora del acceso a los servicios de salud.

Spatial analysis of the tuberculosis treatment dropout, Buenos Aires, Argentina / Análisis espacial del abandono del tratamiento de tuberculosis, Buenos Aires, Argentina

OBJECTIVE Identify spatial distribution patterns of the proportion of nonadherence to tuberculosis treatment and its associated factors.METHODS We conducted an ecological study based on secondary and primary data from municipalities of the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires, Argentina. An exploratory analysis of the characteristics of the area and the distributions of the cases included in the sample (proportion of nonadherence) was also carried out along with a multifactor analysis by linear regression. The variables related to the characteristics of the population, residences and families were analyzed.RESULTS Areas with higher proportion of the population without social security benefits (p = 0.007) and of households with unsatisfied basic needs had a higher risk of nonadherence (p = 0.032). In addition, the proportion of nonadherence was higher in areas with the highest proportion of households with no public transportation within 300 meters (p = 0.070).CONCLUSIONS We found a risk area for the nonadherence to treatment characterized by a population living in poverty, with precarious jobs and difficult access to public transportation.

OBJETIVO Identificar patrones de distribución espacial de la proporción de la no-adherencia al tratamiento de la tuberculosis y sus factores asociados.METODOS Estudio ecológico con datos secundarios y primarios en municipios seleccionados del Área Metropolitana de Buenos Aires. Se realizó un análisis exploratorio de las características del área y de las distribuciones de los casos incluidos en la muestra (proporción de no-adherencia) y un análisis de múltiples factores por regresión lineal. Se analizaron variables referidas a las características de la población, las viviendas y los hogares.RESULTADOS Las áreas con mayor proporción de población que no realizaba aportes jubilatorios (p = 0,007) y con mayor proporción de hogares con necesidades básicas insatisfechas según capacidad de subsistencia presentaron mayor riesgo de no-adherencia (p = 0,032). La proporción de no-adherencia fue más elevada en las áreas con mayor proporción de viviendas sin servicio de transporte público a menos de 300 m (p = 0,070).CONCLUSIONES Existe un área de riesgo para la no-adherencia al tratamiento, caracterizada por tener una población que vive en condiciones de pobreza y precariedad laboral, con dificultades de acceso al servicio de transporte público.

Tuberculosis and living conditions in Salvador, Brazil: a spatial analysis / Tuberculosis y condiciones de vida en Salvador, Brasil: un análisis espacial

OBJECTIVE: To investigate spatial tuberculosis (TB) distribution patterns and the association between living conditions and incidence of the disease in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. METHODS: An ecological study with neighborhood as the unit of analysis. Data was collected from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, SINAN) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, IBGE). Rates of TB incidence were transformed and smoothed. Spatial analysis was applied to identify spatial auto-correlation and "hotspot" areas of high and low risk. The relationship between TB and living conditions was confirmed by spatial linear regression. RESULTS: The incidence of TB in Salvador displayed heterogeneous patterns, with higher rates occurring in neighborhoods with poor living conditions in 1995 - 1996. Over the study period, disease occurrence declined, particularly in less-privileged strata. In 2004 - 2005, the association between living conditions and TB was no longer observed. CONCLUSIONS: The heterogeneous spatial distribution of TB in Salvador previously reflected inequalities related to living conditions. Improvements in such conditions and health care for the less privileged may have contributed to observed changes.

OBJETIVO: Investigar las pautas de distribución espacial de la tuberculosis (TB) y la asociación de las condiciones de vida con la incidencia de esta enfermedad en Salvador, estado de Bahía (Brasil). MÉTODOS: Estudio ecológico que tomó el vecindario como unidad de análisis. Se recopilaron datos del Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Notificación Obligatoria (Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, SINAN) y el Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, IBGE). Se transformaron y suavizaron las tasas de incidencia de la TB. Se aplicó análisis espacial para establecer la autocorrelación espacial y las áreas "conflictivas" de alto y bajo riesgo. Se confirmó la relación entre la TB y las condiciones de vida mediante regresión lineal espacial. RESULTADOS: La incidencia de la TB en Salvador mostró modelos heterogéneos, con tasas mayores en los vecindarios cuyas condiciones de vida eran desfavorables en 1995 y 1996. A lo largo del período de estudio, disminuyó la aparición de nuevos casos de la enfermedad, en particular en los estratos menos privilegiados. En el 2004 y el 2005, ya no se observó la asociación entre TB y condiciones de vida. CONCLUSIONES: La distribución espacial heterogénea de la tuberculosis en Salvador reflejaba anteriormente las desigualdades relacionadas con las condiciones de vida. Las mejoras de dichas condiciones y la atención de salud dirigida a los menos privilegiados pueden haber contribuido a los cambios observados.

Drug-resistant tuberculosis in subjects included in the Second National Survey on Antituberculosis Drug Resistance in Porto Alegre, Brazil / Tuberculose resistente em pacientes incluídos no II Inquérito Nacional de Resistência aos Fármacos Antituberculose realizado em Porto Alegre, Brasil

OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) among tuberculosis patients in a major Brazilian city, evaluated via the Second National Survey on Antituberculosis Drug Resistance, as well as the social, demographic, and clinical characteristics of those patients. METHODS: Clinical samples were collected from tuberculosis patients seen between 2006 to 2007 at three hospitals and five primary health care clinics participating in the survey in the city of Porto Alegre, Brazil. The samples were subjected to drug susceptibility testing. The species of mycobacteria was confirmed using biochemical methods. RESULTS: Of the 299 patients included, 221 (73.9%) were men and 77 (27.3%) had a history of tuberculosis. The mean age was 36 years. Of the 252 patients who underwent HIV testing, 66 (26.2%) tested positive. The prevalence of MDR-TB in the sample as a whole was 4.7% (95% CI: 2.3-7.1), whereas it was 2.2% (95% CI: 0.3-4.2) among the new cases of tuberculosis and 12.0% (95% CI: 4.5-19.5) among the patients with a history of tuberculosis treatment. The multivariate analysis showed that a history of tuberculosis and a longer time to diagnosis were both associated with MDR-TB. CONCLUSIONS: If our results are corroborated by other studies conducted in Brazil, a history of tuberculosis treatment and a longer time to diagnosis could be used as predictors of MDR-TB. .

OBJETIVO: Descrever a prevalência de tuberculose multirresistente (TBMR) em pacientes com tuberculose em uma importante cidade brasileira através do II Inquérito Nacional de Resistência aos Fármacos Antituberculose, assim como as características sociais, demográficas e clínicas desses pacientes. MÉTODOS: De 2006 a 2007, amostras clínicas de pacientes de três hospitais e das cinco unidades básicas de saúde participantes do inquérito realizado em Porto Alegre foram coletadas e submetidas ao teste de sensibilidade aos fármacos. A confirmação das espécies de micobactérias ocorreu por métodos bioquímicos. RESULTADOS: Foram incluídos 299 pacientes. Desses, 221 (73,9%) eram homens e 77 (27,3%) tinham história de tuberculose. A idade média foi de 36 anos. Dos 252 pacientes testados para HIV, 66 (26,2%) estavam infectados. A prevalência da TBMR na amostra geral foi de 4,7% (IC95%: 2,3-7,1); enquanto essa foi de 2,2% (IC95%: 0,3-4,2) nos pacientes virgens de tratamento e de 12,0% (IC 95%: 4,5-19,5) naqueles com história de tratamento antituberculose. A análise multivariada mostrou que história de tuberculose e maior tempo para o diagnóstico associaram-se a TBMR. CONCLUSÕES: Caso esses resultados sejam confirmados em outros estudos no Brasil, a história de tratamento antituberculose e o maior tempo para o diagnóstico poderão ser utilizados como preditores de TBMR. .